Bitcoin Price Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin price analysis for December 15, 2018. The trend is glowing red on 15 minutes chart.

Bitcoin price analysis for December 15, 2018. The trend is glowing red on 15 minutes chart. submitted by CuongTruong777 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

This is a 1 year chart on Bitcoin's price. Notice that despite the ATH in December, Bitcoin still gained over 60% overall. Let this serve as inspiration. /r/Bitcoin

This is a 1 year chart on Bitcoin's price. Notice that despite the ATH in December, Bitcoin still gained over 60% overall. Let this serve as inspiration. /Bitcoin submitted by ABitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Philly's weekly watchlist [Way longer than I wanted it to be but it's for 5 days]

Remember this is for 5 days. My daily watchlist changes well.... daily and is posted
8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
PENNIES
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely]

🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$SINT - Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Slight resistance at $2.50🔥🚀💎👀
$AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion. MACD setup quite well.Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀
$BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥🚀
$CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here. Exploring US Partnership. 🔥👀
$IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar. Tiktok partnership RUMOR?!?! 80% Shareholders breakeven or at a loss! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Small resistance at $1.47 than $1.60/$1.92/$2.
$SXTC - Earning Aug 25th
$JFU - Bitcoin play. Ungodly Oversold. Sitting right on support $1.90. Could break up to $2.13/$2.38/$2.60. LOOKING FOR A HEAVY REVERSAL HERE🔥🚀
$MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner.
$CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀
$DLPN - EARNINGS Aug 17th AH. I have been playing this for months. $0.86-$0.91 buyin. Sell at $1-$1.08Only scary thing is they might split due to compliance💎🚀👀
$LPCN - FDA Approval Aug 28th
$HX - Honestly this is kind of a gamble but I'm keeping my eyes on it. 2h4hr Looking for a reversal. Watching this heavy for a pop off!
$SOLO - US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4hr MACD is setup PERFECTLY. Has a nice gap up to $3-$3.10 to fill. Support is $2.33/ Resistances arnt until $3.10/$3.19/$3.42. 💎🔥👀
$ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. HUGE news in the next 35 days. SUPER oversold on the 4hr. This should MINIMAL gap up to $1. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀
$MARK - Looking to setup golden triangle on 4hr. MACD and RSI perfect! Super beat down on earnings?! Already looking to curl upward. I'd expect $1.60/$1.75/$1.90/$2.40.
$TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀
$AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Super oversold earning September 24th. Might take an early position here. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/$1.55/$1.65.
$DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. Looking for a reversal around the $1.55/$1.85 area. 90% of shareholders break even or at a loss!!
$APEX - Golden triangle approaching on daily. Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀
$IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.25/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62
$GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀
$PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀
💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 : $UAVS $MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k
💰Non-Pennys💰
$TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with Union Therapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. This has very little resistances and could free run to $14+ 🔥🚀👀
$GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥🚀👀 $NRP - 4.18% Dividend upcoming 💎👀
$JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr MACD starting up again👀
$DSS - If this hits $6 I'm going super hella bullish in. Looking for a gap to $9/$10/$12/$14
$BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY!👀
$SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN!
Newfilter.io [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often
submitted by Philly19111 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

This flyer was posted 10 months ago. It has aged well!

This flyer was posted 10 months ago. It has aged well! submitted by Sohcahtoa82 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

After 11K

I just looked at the chart and looked back to bitcoin, the last time we hit 11K,one day later price hit 14K! That was July 2019. And in December of 2017 price hit 11,00 and at the end of the week prices hit 17,000! What I’m saying is gains are most likely coming.
Edit: spelling and grammatical errors
submitted by justinCrypto to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

8/16 Weekly watchlist [LONG]

8/16 WEEKLY WATCHLIST
[P.S. Only enter positions you feel the most comfortable with. Your money is your soldier only send him into the battle you think you'll win. Some of these I have taken positions. Some I am looking to take positions. I've posted how many shares I own of what multiple times ]
PENNIES
[💎-Long time gold][⁉️-Could go both ways][🚀-I think this is gonna shoot up][🔥-This imo is gonna be a fire stock to make money off of just dont get dumped on][⚠️-Already ran a bit be careful][👀-Watching this one closely][⭐- Huge Catalyst or info]
PRIMARY FOCUSES: $FBIO, $FORD, $GRIL, $JMIA, $SINT, $IZEA, $AIM, $SOLO, $UAVS
🚀💸PENNYS💸🚀
$FORD - NOT THE US CAR COMPANY! ⭐Bought out Kablooe design. [Innovative medical and consumer design company]. This is risky! NO RESISTANCES AND SUPPORTS are a HUGE SWOOOOP down🔥🚀⚠️👀
$GRIL - ⭐CLAPPED CHEEKS on last earnings. Next ER Sept 30th PM. Weak support at $2.80. Decent:$2.13/$2.45. STOP LOSS RAID brought the momenteum down + a dumbass Halt. This could continue to push $3/$3.25/ $3.65/$4.15/$4.50👀🚀🔥⚠️*Plus their food slaps *
$FBIO -⭐ 3.8MILLION SHARE BUY AT $3.15 HOLY FUCK BILL GATES?!?!?October 10th FDA approval date. Baby resistance $3.48-$3.52. Than gap to $4.30 WITHOUT ANY RESISTANCE BEYOND! Twitter pumpers are on this HARD🔥🚀👀
$SINT - ⭐Wednesday huge webinar. Mass support at $1.90-$2. Broke above $2.50 resistance. Upcoming $2.63 /$2.91🔥🚀💎👀
$AIM - Still believe this is a $5 ticker in the future. Chart looks to be squeezing upward in a cup and handle fashion[Bullish]. MACD setup quite well. Sitting right on a support. Godly support at $1.95. Decent support at $2.35/$2.54. Resistances $2.70-74/ $2.85/$3.02/$3.15. 💎👀🔥🚀
$BKYI - RUMOR MSFT Buyout August 19th! 3College Contracts for their product. Had a single buyer with a 200k share bid at $0.75. Support seems to be $0.63/$0.68/$0.71. Seems to be rough resistance at the $0.77-$0.78 range . After that could run $0.80/$0.93/$1.06🔥
$CHEK - UNGODLY oversold. 100% Shareholders at a loss! Revese split? Has until December. 52 week low. Expecting a HARD short squeeze here.[$0.52/$0.65/$0.86/$0.98/$1.30] Exploring US Partnership. 🔥
$IZEA - AUG 18th Webinar + TIKTOK NEWS!! NBA+NFL working with! Insane Support at $1.02. Decent support $1.28/$1.35. Resistances at $1.60/$1.92/$2. This screams run up to $1.90-$2!👀🔥🚀👀
$SXTC - Daily chart OVERSOLD. Bullish above $0.39 for a gap up to $0.42/$0.46/$0.52
$MYT - Offering should close 8/19. $0.30. IMO $0.28-$0.33 is a good entry. This should be an easy 5-10% runner.
$CJJD - 5Year average $1.60. SMASHED EARNINGS. Warrants at $2.00. HEAVY support at $1.20-$1.29. Resistances to break are $1.39/$1.50. This should close up to $1.70-$1.80 in the upcoming weeks!💎🚀
$DLPN -⭐ Earning SMASHED as I expected. Resistances are $1.05/ $1.09/$1.16/$1.23/$1.40 💎🚀👀🔥⚠️
$SOLO - ⭐US MANUFACTURING Location PR by END OF YEAR. 4Hr MACD Breached. Daily MACD begining to breach upward. GOLDEN CROSS on 15min; soon on the 30minute!! Support is $2.33/ Resistances $3.10/$3.19/ $3.42. 💎🔥👀🚀
$ONTX - Made compliance not long ago. ⭐HUGE news in the next 35 days. Supports were $1/$1.11/$1.15. Resistances were $1.20/$1.25 /$1.35 💎👀
$MARK - OVERSOLD on earnings. Sitting on $1.30 support. Looking for a short squeeze $1.40/$1.57/$1.70/ $1.89/$2.18/$2.60
$TRVN - $2.30 Offering. Imo $2.20-$2.40 GREAT PRICE. Aug 19th-Aug 20th virtual chat! Really good drug pipeline. Support around the $2.20 area. Once offering closes I expect this to gap up to $2.50-2.75 minimal. 💎🚀👀
$AYTU - HUGE INSTUITIONAL BUYS 8/14. Delivering HEALIGHT for covid study.⭐ [Trump UV rays pump fee months back!]Earning September 24th. Insane support $1.25-$1.28. Looking for this to run to $1.40-$1.49/ $1.55/ $1.65. 👀🔥
$DGLY - MASSIVELY oversold on earnings. 4HR RSI IS 17! Great Wall support at $0.80 than $1.53/$1.85. Watching for a REVERSAL! Has a HUGE gap up to $2.85/$3.06/$3.13/ $3.25/$3.68.👀🔥🚀
$APEX - ⭐GOLDEN CROSS on Daily/4hr Support $0.55/$0.65. Once $0.70 resistance is broken this should gap up to $0.77-$0.79/ $0.94/ $1.01/ $1.10🔥🚀👀
$IDEX - What can I say. Alfs back on twitter dropping bombs. GODLY support at $1.22-$1.27/ Decent support at $1.30. Resistances at $1.46/$1.52/$1.62
$GECC - Monthly dividend 1.60% Yield. Golden Triangle approaching. Huge gap to $7 to fill.💎👀
$PSEC - Monthly Dividend yield 1.17%. Golden Triangle approaching. Decent gap to $6.50 to fill.💎👀
💰HONORABLE MENTIONS💰 :
$UAVS - Corporate call 11am. HUGE CASH ON HAND Increase on ER[+1800%]. Revenue +516%. -$0.44 EPS YIKKKKKES
$MARA/RIOT- Anytime Bitcoin is above 11.6k
💰Non-Pennys💰
$TFFP - Entered worldwide commercial liscensing with UnionTherapeutics. 99% Shareholders at a profit![scary] . Support is hella far away around $6/$9. HIT MY PT OF $14. Could it go more?!👀⚠️
$GOLD - Warran Buffet need I say more🔥⚠️ $JMIA - Super beatdown. End of year this should be a $20-$30 ticker. 4hr RSI 29!!!! 4hr MACD starting up again. Monthly MACD just now breaching. SUPER BULLISH above $12.25 for a nice gap filler to $13.15/$13.50/ $15.60/$18.80👀
$DSS - Upcoming merger. 4hr chart heading to OVERSOLD. VERY LITTLE support until $6. Resistsnces $7.60/ $8/$8.92/$9.50/$10.30/$10.80
$BABA - Upcoming earning. Trump talking about Chinese company bans LOL. If this gets beat down I'm going in HEAVY!
$SPAQ - Tons of pre-orders aka free revenue without advertising. This should take off like NKLA did eventually!GODLY support at $10.60.Decent support at the $12 area. Resistances sit at $12.50/$13/$14. This could run up QUICK! FISKER dropping the PR bombs on twitter like a MAD MAN!
🔥🚀🌾Gold/Silver🌾🚀🔥
$AGC - 2x silver. Aka silver -1% AGC -2%. This is a day or swing trade. Depreciates
$SLV - Long term silver hold
$JNUG - 2x Gold. Same as AGC but for gold
$NUGT/$GLD - Long term gold holds
🔮BET AGAINST THE MARKET🔮
$SPXS - 3X Inverse of SPY [The overall market] Spy +1% SPXS -3%. Spy -3% SPXS +9%
$VXX - Fear index/Volatility Index. This goes up with market feaunsurity. USUALLY inverses $SPY
⚖UPCOMING FDA INFO⚖
$AQST - Sept 27th $LPCN - Aug 28th $ETON - Sept 15th, Sept 29th $OTLK - Phase 3 data due by end of month $MNK - Sept 12th $BHC - Sept 15th $FBIO - p1 results due sept 19th-21st
https://newsfilter.io/latest/news [USE THIS SITE, LOVE THIS SITE, BEFRIEND THIS SITE] It gives live news [1-5mins delayed]. I refresh the FDA approval constantly and the latest news pretty often
ONLY INCLUDED THIS BECAUSE SOME OF YOU ASKED! I still love each and everyone of you either way. This group will always maintain a free status because I enjoy the compassion, team work, and joy you guys bring me. If you would LIKE to donate [again BY NO MEANS REQUIRED] my Cashapp is $Hamstackz and Venmo is $JDH3703 If you do I very much appreciate it <3
submitted by Philly19111 to PhillyStockTelegram [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

Which cryptocurrency to buy?

Which cryptocurrency to buy?
Which cryptocurrency to buy?
Which cryptocurrency to buy in order to profitably invest your funds? Which coin or token will be more profitable over the coming months/years? And how not to lose, but to increase your income?
Surely these questions are being asked by many people at the very beginning. Indeed, during the last 10 years, the crypto market has experienced both huge ups (in December 2017 - BTC jumped to $20,000) and huge downs (in September 2018, the same BTC plunged to $3,000). So how not to go wrong and where is the best place to invest to?
Of course, there are top popular coins that have been around for a long time and are in demand. These are BTC (Bitcoin), ETH (Etherium), XRP (Ripple), LTC (Litecoin), TRX (Tron) and a few more. The exchange rate of these currencies is stable and resistant to fluctuations, but how it will be in the long term depends on many factors. After the news that the United States was no longer cooperating with China, the price of Bitcoin fell sharply in the summer of 2019. But at the same time, after other political changes, when the price of gold and oil began to fall, the Bitcoin rate began to rise again.
It is impossible to predict what exactly will happen tomorrow and whether the price will rise or fall. Traders constantly analyze the market - 24/7, but, even though, their expectations and plans do not always give a 100% guarantee of success.
Cryptocurrency is an amazing thing. Every day new ideas and projects on Blockchain technology are created. Having invested in a good worthwhile startup at the ICO stage (when tokens are just issued and funds are being raised for the development of a project idea), you can get a lot after its implementation. You can also go bust if something goes wrong and the project "does not work out".
Working as a Customer support on cryptocurrency exchanges, the Dealist Solutions team has repeatedly witnessed this kind of ups and downs, successful and promising projects and just scams. Good traders have come to our exchanges and remain there to this day, inexperienced and hot traders quickly leave the platform without making a profit. Observing them, you can draw several conclusions.
You don't need to count on quick income. Nothing is given away for free. Any referral program that brought you to the exchange is not income, but a start, an opportunity to become interested in trading on the platform.
You shouldn't invest into one direction only. Part of the funds should certainly be kept in the "whales" of the cryptocurrency world - bitcoin, ether. Part of the funds should be invested into other projects, moreover, at different stages of their development. After all, it is exactly here there are the highest chances of making money. Constantly follow the course, reviews and even tweets of large experienced traders - there is even such a thing!
A good source of data is the well-known CoinMarketCap site. Data has been added to it for both coins and tokens. And although CoinMarketCap forecasts do not give 100% guarantees, they will help you navigate the offers on the cryptocurrency market, which is already quite a lot. You can view all the information about the project site, the price chart, on which exchanges a particular coin is traded and wonder if this can bring you profit.
With all the volatility of rates, the cryptocurrency market still cannot be compared with roulette. It works according to certain laws that should be learned - then you will not be a loser and will increase your investment significantly. If you have questions, please contact Customer support Dealist Solutions https://dealist.solutions/support-ico-en. We will be glad to share our experience with you!
submitted by Dealist_Solutions to u/Dealist_Solutions [link] [comments]

Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May

The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May
May 25, 2020
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Bitcoin price has yet again taken a dive to $8,800, recording a drop of 4%.
Meanwhile, Network Demand Score which is a metric incorporating network velocity, transaction value, fees, and miner’s rolling inventory, climbed to 6/6 following the bitcoin halving meaning the network is growing stronger which could also be a sign that “we’re in a longer-term bull market.”
Since March 12th, just before the massive sell-off, this score has remained above a 3/6 reflecting growing strength in network activity and instilling confidence in the ongoing uptrend for the bitcoin price.
3 Reasons why fees skyrocketed
One component of this indicator, bitcoin on-chain fees has been surging like crazy.
Last week, Bitcoin average transaction fee climbed to $7, last seen in February 2018. This has the miner revenues from fees rising to the levels not seen for more than 2 years. But this week, it also dropped 55% to $3.13.
The increase in transaction fees, which is increasingly becoming more important for Bitcoin network security, has been because of the unconfirmed transactions piling on in mempool.
A decline in hash rate following halving caused fewer blocks to be found and will continue until the next difficulty adjustment has been one of the reasons behind this jump in fees.
The other reason is the large fluctuations in bitcoin price which has traders sending coins between exchanges.
Ather reason is a “mysterious entity which has been consolidating outputs at the highest fee rates, driving up fees for everyone,” pointed out Serrrgej Kotliar, CEO Bitrefill.
Who is this “Crazy1o1”?
Over the weekend Kotliar shared how, for the past 14 days, this mysterious entity has consolidated a lower-bound of 720 thousand outputs, 5 MB per day, more than BitMEX.
Since May 1st, this entity named “Crazy1o1” has spent around 804k UTXOs and has paid more than 104BTC in mining fees during this time, noted Laurent.
“On some days, these fees are equivalent to 10-12% of all the fees received by miners,” he said.
Laurent along with others suspect this entity to be the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.
Earlier this month, it was also found that crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is making the bitcoin network expensive for everyone and its own users are paying 6.8% of total daily transaction fees.
Prepare for the next bull market
All of this a “decent fire drill for what might happen if we see another bull market,” said Kotliar. Grubles from Blockstream said,
“ON-CHAIN FEES AND BTC PRICE MOVEMENTS CHART. YOU CAN SEE THAT BIG MOVEMENTS RESULT IN PEOPLE RUSHING TO TRANSACT (ALMOST CERTAINLY TO/FROM EXCHANGES), PUSHING FEES UP FOR OTHER NON-TRADER USERS WHO NEED UNCENSORABLE / IRREVERSIBLE TRANSACTIONS.”
The fees reached its all-time high at over $55 during the peak of the bull market in December 2017. As such in the next bull market, a 5x growth in on-chain transactions should be expected.
But given that batching, one of the many ways the network has been scaled is here, it will prevent the pressure on the network from getting worse than 2017. But exchanges will need to be prepared for this.
submitted by kealenz to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]

When and where will the next bitcoin high will be?

When and where will the next bitcoin high will be?

https://preview.redd.it/l99rjokbpjk51.png?width=2468&format=png&auto=webp&s=874f75f4e66f2040a7f77e9878db6eed085a78ee

The BTC price is ready to move to $23,000

Analyst Pladizow notices. He points out that the bitcoin monthly chart shows the Cup and Handle reversal pattern.
The standard target of the pattern materialization will be the level of $23,000. The pattern will be considered complete when the price will break through the point of $11,000 on its monthly chart.
Earlier, the analyst predicted the rise of the BTC price to $12,000 if the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern will be completely formed on the four-hour chart.

When bitcoin would cost $300,000

Crypto expert WyckoffMode said. He used Fibonacci levels and channels to predict the next bitcoin price high.
It turned out that the new cycle’s high would be within the range of $152,000-298,000. The trader points out that it should happen in December, 2021. WyckoffMode supposes that then the price will go down to the range of $50,000-60,000 before January 2023 and the new growth’s high will occur in December, 2025.
His speculations are based on the fact that BTC price movement cycles take 4 years because this is the periodicity with which halving occurs.
"With the first year being Distribution; the second year being Accumulation and the third and fourth year being multiple bouts of re-accumulation building up to a buying climax before starting over again with the first year of Distribution. One of the main reasons for this natural wave cycle of approximately four years involves the Bitcoin Block Halving", the analyst writes

Opinion: Ethereum may get corrected down $360

Trader Credible Crypto has predicted a grow up to $460 earlier this week.
The analyst thinks after that, the ETH price may get corrected down to the point of $360.
Credible Crypto thinks that the situation is opposite for bitcoin: until the price does not break through $11,800, the trend remains downward. He supposes that the potential fall target is the range of $10,600–10,900.
submitted by bestchange_pr to bestchange [link] [comments]

Understanding the RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Understanding the RSI (Relative Strength Index)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), is one of the most popular indicators used in Technical Analysis. Firstly Introduced in J. Welles Wilder’s book, “New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems”, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the velocity of directional price movement and scaled between 0-100. In the classic view, security is thought to be overbought when its RSI reading is above 70 and oversold when its RSI reading falls below 30.

# How is it Calculated?

The equation for the Relative Strength Index, RSI, is:
RSI Formula
For the first calculation of the Relative Strength Index, RSI, we need the previous 14 day’s close prices. The initial RSI is calculated as follows:
  1. Obtain the sum of the UP closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average UP close.
  2. Obtain the sum of the DOWN closes for the previous 14 days and divide this sum by 14. This is the average DOWN close.
  3. Divide the average UP close by the average DOWN close. This is the Relative Strength (RS).
  4. Add 1.00 to the RS.
  5. Divide the result obtained in Step (4) Into 100 (100 is the nominator).
  6. Subtract the result obtained in Step 5 from 100. This is the first RSI.
From this point on, it is only necessary to use the previous average UP close and the previous average DOWN close in the calculation of the next RSI.

# How to Use it Correctly

If used properly, the RSI can be a very valuable tool in interpreting chart movement.
Tops and Bottoms: These are indicated when the Index goes above 70 or below 30. The Index will usually top out or bottom out before the actual market top or bottom, giving an indication that a reversal or at least a significant reaction is imminent.
Failure Swings: When the RSI crosses down the 70 level and rebounds back up yet fails to reach the previous high. The low point made when the RSI rebounded is considered as a potential short entry point when the RSI moves below this level. Conversely, when the RSI crosses up over the 30 level and rebounds back down but fails to move as low as the previous low reading, it is a failure swing. The peak made when the RSI rebounded is considered a potential long entry point when the RSI moves above this level.
Support and Resistance: Areas of support and resistance often show up clearly on the RSI before becoming apparent on the bar chart. In fact, support and resistance lines drawn using the RSI points are often analogous to trend lines drawn using bar chart points.
Divergence: Divergence between price action and the RSI is a very strong indicator of a market turning point. Divergence occurs when the RSI is increasing while the price movement is either flat or decreasing. Conversely, divergence occurs when the RSI is decreasing price movement is either flat or increasing.
Here is an example of a bullish divergence on BTC/USD (Bitcoin) which signaled the bullish trend occurred after that:

RSI Example
As you can see, a bullish divergence formed in November-December of 19. The bullish divergence formed with Bitcoin moving to new lows in December and RSI holding above its prior low. The mid-December breakout confirmed improving momentum. Divergences tend to be more robust when they form after an overbought or oversold reading.

# Summary

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), used in conjunction with a bar chart, can provide a new dimension of interpretation for the chart trader. No single tool, method or system is going to produce the right answers 100% of the time. A successful trader utilizes several different kinds of input into his decisions. The Relative Strength Index can be a valuable input to your toolbox and into your decision-making process.
  • The RSI is a momentum oscillator (oscillator is a line graph that moves between two extremes).
  • It is scaled between 0 – 100.
  • When the RSI reading is above 70 it usually considered overbought and when it falls below 30 it usually considered oversold.
  • The standard is to use 14 periods to calculate the initial RSI value, but you can choose the time frame you think fit the most.
Originally written at:
https://www.iam-unchained.com/trading/investing-learn/relative-strength-index-understanding-rsi/
submitted by Onah92 to technicalanalysis [link] [comments]

The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May

Bitcoin price has yet again taken a dive to $8,800, recording a drop of 4%.
Meanwhile, Network Demand Score which is a metric incorporating network velocity, transaction value, fees, and miner’s rolling inventory, climbed to 6/6 following the bitcoin halving meaning the network is growing stronger which could also be a sign that “we’re in a longer-term bull market.”
Since March 12th, just before the massive sell-off, this score has remained above a 3/6 reflecting growing strength in network activity and instilling confidence in the ongoing uptrend for the bitcoin price.
3 Reasons why fees skyrocketed
One component of this indicator, bitcoin on-chain fees has been surging like crazy.
Last week, Bitcoin average transaction fee climbed to $7, last seen in February 2018. This has the miner revenues from fees rising to the levels not seen for more than 2 years. But this week, it also dropped 55% to $3.13.
The increase in transaction fees, which is increasingly becoming more important for Bitcoin network security, has been because of the unconfirmed transactions piling on in mempool.
A decline in hash rate following halving caused fewer blocks to be found and will continue until the next difficulty adjustment has been one of the reasons behind this jump in fees.
The other reason is the large fluctuations in bitcoin price which has traders sending coins between exchanges.
Ather reason is a “mysterious entity which has been consolidating outputs at the highest fee rates, driving up fees for everyone,” pointed out Serrrgej Kotliar, CEO Bitrefill.
Who is this “Crazy1o1”?
Over the weekend Kotliar shared how, for the past 14 days, this mysterious entity has consolidated a lower-bound of 720 thousand outputs, 5 MB per day, more than BitMEX.
Since May 1st, this entity named “Crazy1o1” has spent around 804k UTXOs and has paid more than 104BTC in mining fees during this time, noted Laurent.
“On some days, these fees are equivalent to 10-12% of all the fees received by miners,” he said.
Laurent along with others suspect this entity to be the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.
Earlier this month, it was also found that crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is making the bitcoin network expensive for everyone and its own users are paying 6.8% of total daily transaction fees.
Prepare for the next bull market
All of this a “decent fire drill for what might happen if we see another bull market,” said Kotliar. Grubles from Blockstream said,
“ON-CHAIN FEES AND BTC PRICE MOVEMENTS CHART. YOU CAN SEE THAT BIG MOVEMENTS RESULT IN PEOPLE RUSHING TO TRANSACT (ALMOST CERTAINLY TO/FROM EXCHANGES), PUSHING FEES UP FOR OTHER NON-TRADER USERS WHO NEED UNCENSORABLE / IRREVERSIBLE TRANSACTIONS.”
The fees reached its all-time high at over $55 during the peak of the bull market in December 2017. As such in the next bull market, a 5x growth in on-chain transactions should be expected.
But given that batching, one of the many ways the network has been scaled is here, it will prevent the pressure on the network from getting worse than 2017. But exchanges will need to be prepared for this.
submitted by kealenz to btc [link] [comments]

MCS | Bitcoin Bull-Run in 2017 Wasn't Made Overnight

MCS | Bitcoin Bull-Run in 2017 Wasn't Made Overnight
\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

https://preview.redd.it/k9mapuykcbg51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c6877b92219a594e437a378e889423953b230d0
#Be_a_Trader!
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

https://preview.redd.it/xt8dvjslcbg51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe58e59c2e4d42e57bd1221c92d190bbb9cf5769
As of 3PM August 9, 2020, the price of Bitcoin has once again exceeded $12,000, challenging the latest high of $12,154. The passage of additional stimulus packages failed in Congress last week, as opposed to the opposition Democrats who dominated the House of Representatives, anticipating an agreement on an additional US stimulus package. In response, President Trump signed an executive order for economic stimulus measures worth about $1 trillion with tax cuts in mind.
The Bank of Korea also evaluated that "there will be abundant liquidity for the time being as major countries continue to have loose monetary policies." However, some investment banks predicted that gold prices would decline slightly after the third quarter.
The market price of major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin, which is called 'digital gold' as it is not issued in a specific country, has also begun to wriggle again. Bitcoin, which is repeating both the bull and bear market at a rapid pace, based on the bitcoin chart from 2017, let's look at what is happening with bitcoin today.

https://preview.redd.it/12jr58omcbg51.png?width=2364&format=png&auto=webp&s=05899a65448c1338f5ee6e6b5b959ca331fdbb11
When the bitcoin entered the bull market at the end of 2017, many cryptocurrency traders realized their economic freedom through bitcoin trading. This is a price chart from July 2017 to August 2020. You can see the chart of a steep rise in the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017. In fact, on November 13, 2017, the bitcoin price hit a short-term low of $5950, then hit $19497 on December 17, 2017, and is still the highest price in Bitcoin's history. Many cryptocurrency traders look only at the Bitcoin chart and once again make a big misunderstanding that once bitcoin enters the bull market, it will not decline and will make a steady rise.

https://preview.redd.it/x4kmv17ncbg51.png?width=2348&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b0a8a7c9fce3de84f66096c265b49344e8df2ce
The Bitcoin chart above shows the price of Bitcoin for about a month, from November 13, 2017, the short-term low of 2017 to December 19, the all-time high of Bitcoin. If you check the bitcoin chart at the time of 2017 as monthly candle and yearly candle, you may be mistaken that the price is rising every day. However if you look at the monthly chart at the time of the exact bull run, you can see that there is no unconditional increase. The Bitcoin price steadily increased, but you can see that there are numerous rises and falls until it hit the all-time high. In the bearish market, short position holders unavoidably appeared, creating numerous FUDs, and in the bullish market, long position holders appeared, spreading tremendous fantasies about Bitcoin to others. After doing dozens and hundreds of iterations, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $19497.

https://preview.redd.it/td9tn2uncbg51.png?width=2338&format=png&auto=webp&s=44de57e629dac4fa0ecc4711c27ade2c2132e84c
The chart above is a chart of Bitcoin prices from just before Black Thursday in March to the present. From $4,000 after Black Thursday to now reaching $12,000, you can see at a glance that there have been numerous increases and decreases. Additional stimulus measures in the US, interest rate freeze, gold price rise, post halving, grayscale trust fund operation expansion, Ethereum 2.0 emergence. In addition, many US institutional investors are continuously entering the market for bitcoin investment with the strategy to hedge the global inflation. The times are good, but the price can't always go upward. Sometimes, the price of bitcoin is expected to rush toward its all-time high of $19497, with countless recurrences of a downtrend and then a bull market.
Investing can't be someone else's behalf, and you shouldn't trust 100% of what others say. You must make profits by using your own investment principles and thorough management. Just because the bitcoin price has gone down for a while, don't be swept away by the FUD of short position holders, and you shouldn't fall into an unfounded illusion that it has turned into a bull market. I think that it is natural for all assets to fall as much as they have risen, and if you conduct good mind control, you can always make objective investment decisions which will produce better results.

💡 "Nothing is Forever in this World" - Charlie Chaplin

You should be aware of the Bitcoin charts that seem to continuously rise will always have an end to the upward trend at some point in time. Even when the ice age comes once again in the Bitcoin markets, there will always be a rise again after the fall. I encourage traders to realize economic freedom at the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange MCS!

I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

🔸 MCS Official Website : https://mycoinstory.com
🔸 MCS Telegram : https://t.me/mycoinstory_en

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

Think "Globally" and $250k Bitcoin by 2022 is clear, says Tim Draper

Think submitted by drainx1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

We’re giving away an Apple Watch 5 as a thank you to the cryptocurrency community for supporting Crypto Pro.

The winner has been chosen: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/e465tg/and_the_winner_of_the_apple_watch_5_is/
EDIT:
When the timer is done, we will run the linked script to select the winner. The script takes the Reddit IDs of all comments in this thread and sha256 hashes each one. It then finds the closest comment hash to the hash of latest Bitcoin block at the time (4PM PDT 30/11/2019).
We will pick the first eligible comment from the list of results. (Our comments are ineligible)
This way the results are completely random and yet still verifiable by everyone. You can run the script yourself and reproduce the results. (we will paste in the script output)
https://gist.github.com/CryptoProApp/d2fa04fab93bbdc8602693f488ece354
In the holiday spirit, and as a thank you to the cryptocurrency community, we, at Crypto Pro are giving away brand new Apple Watch 5 to one lucky bag holders.
Crypto Pro launched back in 2015 when Bitcoin was priced at $200 a pop, and Dogecoin ranked 7th. We wanted to create a small Apple Watch widget so that everyone can see Bitcoin’s price at the flick of a wrist.
The app has gone a long way since then, and we have the reddit and cryptocurrency community to thank, for giving us both encouragements and constructive feedback to shape what the app is today. So thank you:)

Rules

  • Enter by simply commenting on this post. 1 comment = 1 entry
  • Only accounts created before the post is published (to avoid new account spamming).
  • Submissions will last for 24 hours, then the winner will be picked via a random comment selector. The Winner will have 48 hours to respond before picking another winner.
  • We will airdrop/ship the Apple Watch to any country, so long as it is possible to do so. Winner can select the size & color of band (standard).

What is Crypto Pro?

Crypto price / news / portfolio app designed for iOS. Users can see stats like portfolio gains, losses, and other cool analytics. As well as set price alerts, read news, connect to your exchanges and wallets. Here's a link to check us out!

How are we different?

We are the only major cryptocurrency app that keeps all the user data on device and doesn't track or analyze it in any way. We believe that privacy is important, and that no one should have access to your portfolio size, market viewing habits, or API keys. Everything is encrypted and stored locally on your phone. When you delete the app, all your data is deleted… the way it should be. (but we have an option to backup to your own iCloud or Dropbox account if you want to).
We also think the design is pretty cool tbh. We got some nice sparklines going, cool charts, real-time pricing, and a bunch of other cool features. Here’s a few pictures I put together with a sample portfolio > https://imgur.com/a/acj0l67

What should I comment?

Feedback on the app is always appreciated :) or comment the year you first learnt about Bitcoin, or your price prediction for December 2020, or some just some random gibberish ಠᴗಠ.
Happy [belated] Turkey Day!
- Crypto Pro Team
P.S. Buy the fucking dip.
P.P.S. ^ not financial advice.
P.P.S. Upvote if you'd like us to throw more giveaways in the future!
The winner has been chosen: https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/e465tg/and_the_winner_of_the_apple_watch_5_is/
submitted by Bull127 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Mempool is clear while number of outputs is skyrocketing. Thanks to segwit + batch transactions.

submitted by jmmbrito to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

14K soon? (Thoughts)

I just looked at the chart and looked back to bitcoin, the last time we hit 11K one day later price hit 14K! That was July 2019 in in December. After crosssing 11,000 end of the week we hit 17,000 things happen fast
submitted by justinCrypto to u/justinCrypto [link] [comments]

Ethereum Rallies Up 17% Amid Exponential DeFi Growth

Ethereum Rallies Up 17% Amid Exponential DeFi Growth

Meanwhile, Rumors Of ETH 2.0 Testnet Going Live Gave A Further Boost To Ethereum’s Price, Despite Growing Gas Fees
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency to date, Ethereum, managed to reach a price point as high as $278 on Coinbase in what it seems a week of upwards momentum for Ethereum.
Ethereum’s price broke above the $250 resistance level on Wednesday, July 22, with strong bullish sentiment and growing trading volumes. The recent DeFi boom also contributed to the price surge, as on Thursday, July 23, Ethereum spiked several times, securing both the $250 and $260 zones, which can be considered as a support, if a negative correction occurs.
Crypto experts consolidated upon the statement that if Ethereum secures the $285 resistance, the crypto sector may see the second-largest crypto to skyrocket past $300, which would mean a new 52-week high, according to data from Cryptobrowser.io
However, the upward momentum may be put to a halt, as transaction fees, otherwise known as gas, are exponentially growing. The current gas price situation made Vitalilk Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, to bring a proposal for restructuring gas fees across the blockchain. Interestingly, the gas prices increase didn’t stop Ethereum’s upwards rally. Further, one of the biggest gas spenders, Tether, also accounts for the increase in network usage, as 59% of all circulating USDT tokens are currently on Ethereum’s network. Ethereum also surpassed the leading cryptocurrency to date, Bitcoin, in terms of network usage.
DeFi also accounts for the increased Ethereum network usage, as the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi projects hit a new all-time high of $3,5 billion, with a peak of 4 million ETH tokens locked in DeFi apps. The rapid growth means DeFi made an 87% increase in TVL in July alone, with a whopping 400% TVL increase since the start of 2020.
Source: DeFi Pulse
Meanwhile, crypto analysts consider the long-awaited ETH 2.0 update to be at the core of Ethereum’s upwards rally. Ethereum officials stated that a testnet for ETH 2.0 would go live on August 4, which is the first step for transitioning from a Proof-of-work (PoW) to a Proof-of-stake (PoS) transaction validation mechanism.
The much-anticipated network update created a vast demand for Ethereum options contracts, with investors betting Ethereum’s price would reach the $400-$800 regions. Over $230 million were put into call options, with 6000 contracts expiring on September 25.
Also, crypto derivatives exchange Deribit looked into the possibility for Ethereum to reach and surpass $400 by the end of September or December. It turns out, the odds of Ethereum hitting $400 are 18% and 34%, respectively.
Despite the forecasts, the market is still optimistic in a future price rally above $400. Bitazu Capital’s Mohit Sorout published a chart on Twitter, stating that Ethereum’s climb to $360 “will be fast”, with “Two months of sellers reevaluating their life choices now.”
submitted by Crypto_Browser to CryptoBrowser_EN [link] [comments]

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Year End Recap)

I bought $1000 worth of the Top Ten Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (Year End Recap)

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptocurrencies for Two Years (2018 & 2019) - End of Year Summary - Down 86%
Full blog post with all the tables
**NOTE** - I usually like to release the two posts a day apart, but I'll be spacing out the Top Ten 2018 and the Top Ten 2019 reports a bit more as readers have mentioned they've been removed by the mods (no offence taken, mods - the content is similar, I assume the posts are being removed because they're seen as identical. **END NOTE**
tl;dr - Every crypto was down again in December. After two years tracking this group of cryptos, I'm down -86%. Although the market as a whole rebounded in 2019, the 2018 Top Ten portfolio was flat for the year. Bitcoin wins this year by far, do you know who one last year? 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos has lost at least 90% of their January 2018 value and 50% of cryptos aren't in the Top Ten anymore. NEM continues to be the absolute worst performer. Happy New Year, Happy New Decade!

The Experiment:

Instead of hypothetically tracking cryptos, I made an actual $1000 investment, $100 in each of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap as of the 1st of January 2018. Think of it as a lazy man's Index Fund (no weighting or rebalancing), less technical, more fun (for me at least), and hopefully still a proxy for the market as a whole - or at the very least an interesting snapshot of the 2018/2019 crypto space. I’m trying to keep it simple and accessible for beginners and those looking to get into crypto but maybe not quite ready to jump in yet.
I have also started a parallel project: on January 1st, 2019, I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) into the new Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019. Spoiler alert: the 2019 Experiment makes for much happier reading.

Month Twenty-Four and Two Year Tally – Down 86% since January 2018

Thought not quite as bad as November, December was a rough month in the cryptoverse: for the second straight month, each of the 2018 Top Ten cryptos ended 2019 in the red.
Finally tally after two years of this experiment? I am now down -86% on the 2018 Top Ten crypto portfolio since January 2018. My $1,000 investment on the 1st of January 2018 is now worth $136.
This isn’t quite the record low: the 2018 Top Ten bottomed out at -88% in January of 2019.
The best month this year for this group of cryptos was June 2019, where this portfolio reached a -71% return on initial investment.

Ranking and December Winners and Losers

For the second straight month, there was no upward movement: every crypto either held onto its position or slid. Stellar, Cardano, and NEM, each dropped a position, down to #11, #13, and #29 respectively.
December was not kind to IOTA and Dash: IOTA fell three spots to #23 and Dash dropped four positions to #26.
December WinnersBitcoin pretty much broke even, down only -2% in December. Second place goes to Bitcoin Cash, down -6%.
December Losers – For the second month in a row, I’m going to have to give the loss to Dash. Although it virtually tied with IOTA and Dash (both down -21%), Dash also reached a new low, settling down at #26. A reminder: since January 2018, Dash had never ended a month in last place until last month.
For those keeping score, here is tally of which coins have the most monthly wins and losses after two years of the 2018 Top Ten Cryptos Experiment. Most monthly wins (6): Bitcoin. Most monthly losses (5): Stellar. All cryptos have at least one monthly win and Bitcoin now stands alone as the only crypto that hasn’t lost a month.

FINAL RESULTS after tracking this group through 2018 and 2019: Bitcoin is well in the lead, followed distantly by Litecoin, then Ethereum. NEM and Dash are the worst overall performers.

Although down -46% since January 2018, Bitcoin is still miles ahead of the rest of the field. Litecoin and Ethereum are virtually tied at a very distant second place down -81% and -82% respectively.
That’s what victory looks like for the Top Ten 2018 batch of cryptos.
If that’s victory, what’s defeat?
NEM has performed the absolute worst, down -97%. in two years. My initial $100 investment is now worth $3.47.
But NEM is by no means alone at the bottom: 60% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten are down at least 90%: NEM, Cardano, Dash, IOTA, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash.
As you’ll see on the chart above, 50% of the cryptos that started 2018 in the Top Ten have dropped out, specifically NEM, Dash, IOTA, Stellar, and Cardano. They have been replaced by EOS, Binance Coin, Tether, Tezos, and BTCSV. Three coins (NEM, Dash, IOTA) have dropped out of the Top Twenty and one (NEM) is in danger of dropping out of the the Top Thirty. Quite a fall in two years.
Of note, with the exception Cardano, the Top Five cryptos have more or less stayed put over the course of the twenty-four month experiment. Also of note: Litecoin has maintained perfect consistency, ending 2017, 2018, and 2019 glued to the #6 position.
For extra credit, does anyone remember which crypto finished 2018 in the lead?
Answer – Stellar.
Probably not what you were thinking, huh?

Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:

The crypto space lost $9B in December, which isn't much for crypto and nowhere near the $50B which evaporated in November. The overall market cap is now back to the $189B mark, last seen in May 2019.
Two Year Final Market Cap Figures:
  • Since January 2018 – the total market cap for crypto has dropped -67%.
  • Since January 2019 – the total market cap for crypto has increased +49%
  • Worst Month – January 2019 ($114B total crypto market cap)
  • Best Month – January 2018 ($575B total crypto market cap)
  • The last time the total market cap reached $500B: January 2018
  • The last time the total market cap reached $400B: May 2018
  • The last time the total market cap reached $300B: August 2019
  • The last time the total market cap reached $200B: November 2019

Bitcoin dominance:

Bitcoin dominance ticked back up in December and ends 2019 at 68%, a level not seen since September 2019 and much higher than 2018’s year end figure of 52%.
For context, the range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2018 has been quite wide: a high of 70% in September 2019 and a low of 33% in February 2018.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2018:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio is worth $136, down about -86% in two years.
Although the overall market ended 2019 stronger than the year before, the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos finished at more or less the same level: last year the portfolio recorded a -85% loss and was worth $152.
  • Lowest 2018 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2019 ($122)
  • Highest 2018 Top Ten portfolio value: January 2018 ($792)
The 2019 Top Ten Experiment is doing better, but the year end report will show that group has basically broken even for the year, up a mere +2%. The year end report will be released soon for the 2019 Top Ten.
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom line: after a $2000 investment in both the 2018 and the 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my portfolios would be worth $1,153.
That’s down about -42%.

Implications/Observations:

Congratulations to Bitcoin which significantly outperformed the rest of the field at the end of the first two years of the 2018 Top Ten Index Fund experiment.
Two years on, there are a few obvious takeaways from the 2018 experiment. Buying at all time highs put this experiment in a difficult position from the start and it has not yet come close to just breaking even. The high point of this experiment was at the end of the very first month (January 2018) where the portfolio was “only” down -20%. I haven’t run the numbers, but by eyeballing and with hindsight, it’s easy to see that it would have been much better to come in at just about any other time during that first year. The portfolio would still be down, but not like this – not like this.
That said, buying mid-January when prices were even higher would have been worse – hard to imagine considering my Top Ten buys on New Years Day 2018 have seen a -86% drop – but yes, it could have been even worse.
For each of the first twenty-four months, the experiment’s focus of solely holding the Top Ten Cryptos continues to be a losing approach. While the overall market is down -67% from January 2018, the cryptos that began 2018 in the Top Ten are down -86% over the same period. This of course implies that I would have done a bit better if I’d picked different cryptos.
At no point in the 2018 Top Ten Experiment has this investment strategy been successful: the initial 2018 Top Ten have under-performed each of the twenty-four months compared to the market overall.
There are a few examples, however, of this approach outperforming the market in the parallel 2019 Top Ten Crypto Currency Experiment.
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 is now up +21% since the beginning of 2018. My initial $1k investment into crypto would have yielded about +$210 had it been redirected to the S&P.

Conclusion:

Although the 2018 Top Ten Experiment cryptos ended 2019 pretty much where they began, the market overall saw some solid gains in 2019. 2018 ended pretty hopelessly as crypto seemed to be in free-fall. 2019 overall felt like a recovery story, as a bottom was reached. With The Bitcoin Halvening due to arrive mid 2020, it should be another interesting year in the crypto space.

Thanks and Future of the Experiments:

Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment(s). I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel project where I repeated the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of a new set of Top Ten cryptos as of January 1st 2019.
As for the future of the experiment, why not, let’s keep this thing rolling:
  1. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2018.
  2. I’ll continue to hold and will report on the Top Ten Cryptos of 2019.
  3. I’ve also decided to repeat the experiment with the Top Ten Cryptos of 2020.
Thanks again and all the best in your crypto adventures!
edit: changed a bad link
submitted by Joe-M-4 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

The Mysterious Entity that Caused the Bitcoin Network fees to Jump 146% in May

Bitcoin price has yet again taken a dive to $8,800, recording a drop of 4%.
Meanwhile, Network Demand Score which is a metric incorporating network velocity, transaction value, fees, and miner’s rolling inventory, climbed to 6/6 following the bitcoin halving meaning the network is growing stronger which could also be a sign that “we’re in a longer-term bull market.”
Since March 12th, just before the massive sell-off, this score has remained above a 3/6 reflecting growing strength in network activity and instilling confidence in the ongoing uptrend for the bitcoin price.
3 Reasons why fees skyrocketed
One component of this indicator, bitcoin on-chain fees has been surging like crazy.
Last week, Bitcoin average transaction fee climbed to $7, last seen in February 2018. This has the miner revenues from fees rising to the levels not seen for more than 2 years. But this week, it also dropped 55% to $3.13.
The increase in transaction fees, which is increasingly becoming more important for Bitcoin network security, has been because of the unconfirmed transactions piling on in mempool.
A decline in hash rate following halving caused fewer blocks to be found and will continue until the next difficulty adjustment has been one of the reasons behind this jump in fees.
The other reason is the large fluctuations in bitcoin price which has traders sending coins between exchanges.
Ather reason is a “mysterious entity which has been consolidating outputs at the highest fee rates, driving up fees for everyone,” pointed out Serrrgej Kotliar, CEO Bitrefill.
Who is this “Crazy1o1”?
Over the weekend Kotliar shared how, for the past 14 days, this mysterious entity has consolidated a lower-bound of 720 thousand outputs, 5 MB per day, more than BitMEX.
Since May 1st, this entity named “Crazy1o1” has spent around 804k UTXOs and has paid more than 104BTC in mining fees during this time, noted Laurent.
“On some days, these fees are equivalent to 10-12% of all the fees received by miners,” he said.
Laurent along with others suspect this entity to be the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.
Earlier this month, it was also found that crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is making the bitcoin network expensive for everyone and its own users are paying 6.8% of total daily transaction fees.
Prepare for the next bull market
All of this a “decent fire drill for what might happen if we see another bull market,” said Kotliar. Grubles from Blockstream said,
“ON-CHAIN FEES AND BTC PRICE MOVEMENTS CHART. YOU CAN SEE THAT BIG MOVEMENTS RESULT IN PEOPLE RUSHING TO TRANSACT (ALMOST CERTAINLY TO/FROM EXCHANGES), PUSHING FEES UP FOR OTHER NON-TRADER USERS WHO NEED UNCENSORABLE / IRREVERSIBLE TRANSACTIONS.”
The fees reached its all-time high at over $55 during the peak of the bull market in December 2017. As such in the next bull market, a 5x growth in on-chain transactions should be expected.
But given that batching, one of the many ways the network has been scaled is here, it will prevent the pressure on the network from getting worse than 2017. But exchanges will need to be prepared for this.
submitted by kealenz to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

BITCOIN PRICE BACK TO $12k?! THIS BTC CHART SAYS YES! Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis December 28 2018 Bitcoin CRASH News - What YOU Must Know - December Price Analysis Bitcoin What BULLS Are Watching! December 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis BITCOIN PRICE BOTTOM?!!! December Historically Marks Tops & Bottoms!!!

Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. Skip to content. Prices. Products. Company. Earn crypto. Get $171+ Sign in. Get started. Price charts Bitcoin price. Bitcoin price (BTC) Add to Watchlist $ 13,070.01 +0.56%. 1h. 24h. 1w. 1m. 1y. all. $0.0000 January 1 12:00 AM. 10:56 AM 3:06 PM 7:17 PM 11:27 PM 3:38 AM ... Charts providing a snapshot of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ecosystem Bitcoin price reached $17,900 22 December 2017 $13,800 Bitcoin price loses one third of its value in 24 hours, dropping below $14,000. 5 February 2018 $6,200 Bitcoin's price drops 50 percent in 16 days, falling below $7,000. 31 October 2018 $6,300 On the 10 year anniversary of Bitcoin, price holds steady above $6,000 during a period of ... Bitcoin Price. bitcoinprice.org provides fast loading real time bitcoin price charts and historical bitcoin charts with advanced technical indicators and chart drawing tools. Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls Bitcoin. Bitcoins are traded in many different exchanges around the world and exchanged for many different national currencies as well as other ... As of December 16th 2019, the price of Bitcoin is 127% higher than it was a year ago. The price changes are still rather drastic, however, as on December 16th the price of bitcoin fell by more than 3% in just 15 minutes, from $7100 to less than $6900. Despite a recent recovery of nearly $1,000, the price of Bitcoin still follows a clear downtrend. Now Bitcoin price is $7,556.40. The market ...

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BITCOIN PRICE BACK TO $12k?! THIS BTC CHART SAYS YES!

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis 2018 Bitcoin price prediction. Bitcoin price technical analysis Bitcoin Price Trading Technical Analysis. Ripple coin price analysis. Bitcoin Technical Analysis & Bitcoin News Today: I'll use technical analysis on the Bitcoin price to make a Bitcoin price prediction. Watch the video to learn more! Watch the video to learn more! Bitcoin BULLS Prepared! December 2019 Price Prediction, News & Trade Analysis - Duration: 39:47. Krown's Crypto Cave 9,493 views. 39:47. How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio - Duration: 31 ... Bitcoin price has many different support areas leaving room for BTC to consolidate for next move up. As always, it is a battle of the bulls vs. bears. With targets for btc price to $12k and down ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue

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